关于报告
The future level of global spending on medicines has implications for healthcare systems and policymakers across developed and emerging economies, and these issues are even more important in light of the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. Stakeholders share common goals of improving health outcomes while controlling costs and expanding access to medicines, however these tasks have been made more challenging by uncertainties brought on by the pandemic. Past spending growth typically offers some clues on expected future growth and, broadly, that will still be true despite the unprecedented dynamics at play. This report examines trends in medicine spending along with factors influencing growth, including patent expiries, launches of new medicines, and changes in demand and use, particularly in pharmerging and lower income countries.
报告摘要
The global medicine market — using invoice price levels — is expected to grow at 3–6% CAGR through 2025, reaching about $1.6 trillion in total market size in 2025. This excludes spending on COVID-19 vaccines, where total cumulative spending through 2025 is projected to be $157 billion. In this report, we quantify the impact of dynamics influencing growth in the use of medicines and examine current levels of spending and use in 2020, globally, and for specific therapy areas and countries.
在发达国家，通过专利生命周期和仿制药和生物仿制药的竞争抵消了新疗法，预计将继续作为影响医学支出和增长的主要因素。该地区的新品牌预计将在2025年之前持续历史上的新型药品支出，与过去五年相似。
In pharmerging countries, dramatic increases in healthcare access were the largest driver of changes in the use of medicines historically, but the trend is slowing and will result in volume declines across many markets. Growth in the region will be led by China, which is expected to accelerate, post-COVID, driven by greater uptake and use of new original medicines.
